| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Stony Brook | 42-0 | 1224.1 | +0.0 | 1224.1 | 17.0% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Washington State | 13-36 | 1224.1 | -15.8 | 1208.3 | 23.9% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | California | 34-0 | 1208.3 | +72.5 | 1280.8 | 11.2% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Northern Illinois | 6-3 | 1280.8 | +59.7 | 1340.5 | 36.7% |
| 7 | Oct 3 2025 | W | Colorado State | 45-24 | 1340.5 | +33.4 | 1373.9 | 53.0% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Nevada | 44-10 | 1373.9 | +18.4 | 1392.3 | 83.3% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Fresno State | 23-0 | 1392.3 | +56.1 | 1448.4 | 41.4% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Wyoming | 24-7 | 1448.4 | +27.0 | 1475.4 | 61.0% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Hawai'i | 6-38 | 1475.4 | -43.4 | 1432.0 | 58.9% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Boise State | 17-7 | 1432.0 | +61.0 | 1493.0 | 22.3% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | San José State | 25-3 | 1493.0 | +11.9 | 1504.9 | 81.8% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | L | New Mexico | 17-23 | 1504.9 | -34.1 | 1470.8 | 47.8% |
| 19 | Dec 27 2025 | L | North Texas | 47-49 | 1470.8 | -29.5 | 1441.3 | 34.7% |